Awards & Nominations

ASPIRE has received the following awards and nominations. Way to go!

Best Use of Science

The solution that makes the best and most valid use of science and/or the scientific method.

Scanning for Lifeforms

This challenge addresses a pressing global need to track change in biological diversity, which is threatened by human-driven environmental change. Use space agency data to develop innovative ways to detect biological diversity on Earth, track and predict changes over time, and communicate that information to scientists and society.

Detection and Prediction of Biodiversity

Summary

Our environment conditions are changing from day to day due to natural or man-made activities that are further harming our earth's biodiversity. Many government organizations and environmentalists are well aware that our biodiversity needs to be taken care of but couldn't due to a lack of tools. With our model's help, one can forecast the biological diversity for future years of species existence. Here, ground-based and satellite-based data have been utilized to produce prediction maps that can help take precautionary steps to save our planet 'Earth'.

How We Addressed This Challenge

A model is generated to combine occurrence data from GBIF and satellite data from NEO to predict species in space using environmental variables. Ground observational data along with NASA satellite-based remote sensing data of environmental variables such as temperature, precipitation, aerosol optical thickness, and vegetation, etc are taken to forecast habitual places for a particular species around the globe as shown in Figure 1. However, our model can be generalized to all species for any environmental variable at any place of desired interest. Also, biodiversity is measured using two scales: Richness and Shannon index. Richness defines the number of different species present whereas the Shannon index defines the ratio of the population of a particular species to the total population.



In this model, statistical analysis for the environmental factor, for instance, the temperature is shown in detail. A histogram is made to know the fraction of the total occurrence of species at any temperature. This leads to an understanding of the approximate temperature range suitable for that particular species. Using satellite data of world temperature, the points are marked on the map for the species lying in that temperature range. Those points correspond that the probability of locating a particular species is relatively higher than other unmarked points (Figure 2(a),(b)).



After doing the same prediction for other environmental variables, an intersection is taken of marked points from all the maps to generate a new prediction map. This prediction map best represents the most probable habitable places for the chosen species. Figure 3 explains the intersection of different plots on the world map for wolf species.



Similarly, several previous year data (1950-2020) for a specific environmental variable (such as temperature) is taken from Globe Data and NOAA for future prediction of species using curve fitting techniques. Figure 4 depicts the future temperature using the curve fitting method. Here, as an example, the temperature is predicted for the next 60 years of Charleston Intl. Airport, SC US.


Since the average future temperature is now known in a particular place, it can be compared with the temperature range obtained earlier (Figure 2(b)). If the predicted temperature lies outside the temperature range, it can be configured that the probability of getting endangered or extinct is quite high for that particular species in the future. Through this space-time prediction model, one can optimize every step with more number of environmental variables to get better prediction. Figure 5 shows the combination of space and time model to make predictions for biodiversity.



In this way, we are trying to create awareness among the people who are trying to save our planet from natural as well as human activities but unable to do so due to lack of resources. Our model can help the various organizations and environmentalists to predict the future of our planet 'Earth'.

How We Developed This Project

Detecting and predicting biological diversity is an urgent need at this time keeping in view the current scenario of our earth. Several parameters such as deforestation, increasing pollution, enhancing temperature due to global warming and irregular precipitation effects have given a hint to the coming alarming condition on our earth. We believe that this model can help the government policies and various industries that are involved in this study to the large extent.

Python codes have been utilized extensively to generate the prediction model on bioforecasting. Various libraries such as matplotlib, pandas, gmap, random, pyplot, seaborm etc. are used throughout the model to produce effective results in our model. Curve fitting methods have been used in the time prediction model.

The outcome of this hackathon is hosted on https://sites.google.com/view/bioforecast. The source code can be found on GitHub: https://github.com/rmnagrwal/lifeform-scanner.

How We Used Space Agency Data in This Project

As explained above, the occurrence data of species has been taken from GBIF site which is the ground observational data. For each occurrence, data for each environmental variable associated with latitude and longitude is taken from Globe data site and NEO site from NASA. The Aqua/Terra satellite is involved in providing environmental variable data used in this model. The data from these sites have been used for space prediction of biodiversity in our model. Second, yearly average temperature data has been obtained from NOAA site and Globe data site for time predicting the biodiversity. Figure 5 clearly explained how these ground-based and satellite-based data are combined to get prediction maps over space and time.

Project Demo

Please open the video below:

https://youtu.be/E44by0qbll8

Data & Resources

Occurrence data of the species:- https://www.gbif.org/

Human observed data of the environmental factors:- https://datasearch.globe.gov/

Satellite observed data of some of the environmental factors:- https://neo.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/view.php?datasetId=TRMM_3B43M

Yearly average temperature of USA of past 70 years:- https://www.noaa.gov/

Tags
# biodiversity # space prediction # time prediction # ground-based data # satellite-based data # GBIF # Globe data # NEO # Aqua/Terra satellite # NOAA # occurrence data # Bio-forecast # lifeform-scanner # species # environmental-variable # Earth
Judging
This project was submitted for consideration during the Space Apps Judging process.